I asked ChatGPT about a possible second Trump presidency

As I sense the falling sands in my hourglass slipping away, over the past couple of years my focus on politics has begun to wane in favor of the burning questions of life and death itself. These questions and our social lives, our political lives are, of course, not unrelated. But for me my heart is more and more focused on what are perhaps best called spiritual concerns. I am drawn ever more to the intimate path, to contemplation and to sharing what I’ve found on this journey. 

And that’s mostly what I share here on this blog, at my newsletter Unanswered Question, and in my books.

Still the coming election looms in my consciousness. I am not above anything, certainly not politics. 

My perspective is from the American left. In Europe I’d be some form of social democrat. As I witness the rise of right wing populism within this country I am, well, more than anxious.

So, I wonder, what is a reasonable read on where we’re headed? It sure feels like perdition and a hand basket. But is that so?

Too much of what is on offer is one version or another of doom scrolling.

Then it occurred to me it might be good to try and find something vaguely resembling a neutral analysis. And then I thought, why not ask a robot?

I asked it two questions.

This is what followed.

ChatGPT on a second Trump presidency

Question: What’s a reasonable expectation of what a second Trump term will look like?

A second term for Donald Trump is expected to bring significant changes and intensifications in various policy areas, both domestically and internationally. Here are some key expectations based on current analyses:

1. Domestic Policy:

1. • Regulatory Rollbacks: Trump is likely to continue his deregulatory agenda, further dismantling environmental protections and federal climate science programs. This could involve reducing the influence of agencies like the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and increasing fossil fuel production​ (POLITICO)​.
   • Healthcare and Social Policies: Trump may push to rescind policies put in place by the Biden administration, such as those requiring hospitals to offer abortions during medical emergencies, which would likely face legal challenges​ (POLITICO)​.
   • Immigration: Trump’s plans include a renewed focus on strict immigration policies, potentially involving mass deportations and significant changes to asylum procedures​ (POLITICO)​.

1. Foreign Policy:

1. • Nationalist and Unilateral Approach: Trump’s foreign policy is expected to become more nationalist and less cooperative, potentially straining relationships with long-standing allies. This could include questioning the relevance of NATO and pulling back from international agreements like the Paris Climate Agreement​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​​ (Brookings)​.
   • Trade Policies: A continuation and intensification of his “America First” trade policies are likely, with increased tariffs on Chinese goods and potentially phasing out essential imports from China. This would aim to boost domestic production but could lead to higher consumer prices and economic pushback​ (POLITICO)​​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​.
   • Military and Security: Trump might take a hardline stance on security issues, such as considering military action against Mexican drug cartels and potentially recognizing North Korea as a nuclear power if it agrees to freeze its arsenal​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​​ (Brookings)​.

1. Government Restructuring:

1. • Consolidation of Power: Trump is expected to further consolidate control over federal institutions, appointing loyalists to key positions. This could lead to significant shifts in the functioning and priorities of these institutions, aligning them more closely with Trump’s agenda​ (Brookings)​.

Overall, a second Trump term would likely see an extension of his first-term policies, with a more pronounced shift towards nationalism and unilateralism in both domestic and international arenas. This period could be marked by increased regulatory rollbacks, stringent immigration enforcement, aggressive trade policies, and potential restructuring of government institutions to align with his priorities.

Question: What are the chances of Trump attempting to become a dictator?

The chances of Donald Trump attempting to become a dictator in a second term are speculative and depend on various factors, including the checks and balances within the U.S. political system, the response of other political actors, and public opinion.

Factors to Consider:

1. Institutional Checks and Balances:

1. • The U.S. Constitution provides a framework designed to prevent any single individual from gaining unchecked power. This includes the separation of powers among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches.
   • Throughout Trump’s first term, various institutions, including the judiciary and parts of the executive branch, acted as checks on his power. However, there were also instances where these checks appeared weakened, raising concerns among critics.

1. Congressional Dynamics:

1. • The role of Congress is crucial. If Trump were to win a second term, the composition of Congress would significantly influence his ability to consolidate power. A Republican-controlled Congress might be more supportive of his agenda, while a Democratic-controlled Congress would likely resist efforts perceived as authoritarian.

1. Public Opinion and Civil Society:

1. • Public opinion and the role of civil society, including the media, advocacy groups, and public protests, play a critical role in maintaining democratic norms. Widespread public opposition can act as a powerful deterrent against attempts to undermine democracy.

1. Precedents and Signals from Trump’s First Term:

1. • During his first term, Trump exhibited behaviors that some critics viewed as authoritarian, such as attacking the media, questioning the legitimacy of elections, and using executive orders to bypass Congress. These actions raised alarms about potential future attempts to consolidate power.
   • However, there were also significant pushbacks against these actions from various quarters, including the judiciary, media, and within his own administration.

1. International Comparisons:

1. • Comparisons with other leaders who have attempted to undermine democratic norms can provide insights. Leaders who have successfully transitioned to authoritarian rule often do so by systematically dismantling institutional checks, gaining control over the judiciary, and suppressing dissent. The resilience of U.S. democratic institutions would be a critical factor in any such attempt.

Expert Opinions:

• Some political analysts argue that Trump’s rhetoric and actions indicate a willingness to undermine democratic norms if it serves his interests. They point to his repeated claims of election fraud and efforts to overturn the 2020 election results as warning signs.
• Others contend that the institutional framework and the political culture of the United States provide strong safeguards against any attempt to establish dictatorial rule. They emphasize the importance of continued vigilance and civic engagement in protecting democratic institutions.

Conclusion:

While concerns about Trump’s authoritarian tendencies are not unfounded, the likelihood of him successfully becoming a dictator is mitigated by the robust system of checks and balances, the role of Congress, the judiciary, and public opinion. The resilience of these democratic safeguards will be crucial in determining the outcome.

For a more detailed analysis, you may refer to sources such as Brookings​ (Brookings)​, Politico​ (POLITICO)​, and the Council on Foreign Relations​ (Council on Foreign Relations)​.

***

So. There we go. A robot’s view. It appears to be saying what will happen is pretty much in our hands.

I wish that were a bit more comforting…