Will Iran Attack Israel Today?

Tropical Storm Debby is posing what Axios calls a “nightmare scenario” for flooding across Georgia and South Carolina this week. Some seven thousand miles to our east, another nightmare scenario is unfolding for Israel. According to the Israeli news outlet Haaretz, Western diplomats expect Iran’s attack response to the Israeli-attributed assassination of Hamas politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh to come within the next day or so. In related news:

Iran sent a notice alerting pilots about GPS jamming in its airspace, similar to the warning it issued before its April 13 attack on Israel.
Lufthansa canceled all flights to Israel until August 12.
President Biden convened a national security meeting yesterday to discuss these developments. He also spoke with Jordan’s King Abdullah.
Several countries have urged their nationals to leave Lebanon amid fears of a wider conflict in the region.
Many Israelis displaced by Hezbollah bombing in the north are pressuring their government to make that part of the country safe, even if this means a full-blown war.

However, things are even worse for Israel than they appear.

“The ground is changing beneath our feet”

Writing in Foreign Affairs, international relations expert Dalia Dassa Kaye reports that, on a recent trip to Israel, she found a fundamental change in the “spirit” of the Middle East: many Israelis now believe that their adversaries think destroying their country is actually a realistic goal.

The October 7 invasion shattered Israeli assumptions that their military and technological superiority could deter their enemies and that they could live securely behind walls and fortified borders. Now analysts express a sense of existential dread they describe as different from any they have felt since their country’s independence in 1948.

Israel is hemorrhaging international support because of the enormous death toll and destruction in Gaza. In legal forums in The Hague, Israel faces heightened scrutiny for their West Bank occupation and their conduct of the war.

In addition, Iran’s April attack on Israel alarms authorities who worry that the next assault may not be so easily repelled. This while conflicts with Hezbollah to the north, Hamas to the west, jihadists to the east, and Houthis to the south continue with no end in sight. As the nation faces multi-pronged aggression unprecedented in its history, its reservists are exhausted, constraining Israel’s ability to sustain—much less heighten—its war effort.

As one former government official told Kaye, “The ground is changing beneath our feet.”

“The terrorism warning lights are blinking red again”

To respond to the crisis in the Middle East most effectively, we must engage with it most empathetically. But this is hard for many Americans.

We are deeply worried about yesterday’s further drops in the stock market and focused on a presidential election that is truly unprecedented. Our expansive oceans and vast military superiority have led us to feel protected from wars abroad.

But this sense of complacency is ill-founded.

Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu arrived in Tehran on Monday for talks with Iran’s leadership. Given Iran’s recent military and economic partnership with Russia and China, we are left to wonder what role Russia might play in any escalation between Iran and Israel. And what role the US might have to play in response.

Meanwhile, ISIS-K is escalating into a terror threat against our homeland. Analysts warn that “the terrorism warning lights are blinking red again,” echoing the run-up to 9/11. Undersea cables that conduct 99 percent of the world’s internet traffic are especially susceptible to sabotage. And AI-made bioweapons can be easily smuggled across borders and deployed with devastating consequences.

I report all of that to ask this: If the threats against Israel were threats against the US, how empathetically would you respond?

“When you know how much God is in love with you”

The biblical command to “pray for the peace of Jerusalem” (Psalm 122:6) has not been this urgent since the modern state of Israel was founded in 1948. “Peace,” in Hebrew, translates shalom, meaning a deep sense of well-being with God, others, and ourselves. For Israel to have such shalom, it must be at peace with God and at peace with its neighbors.

Accordingly, let us pray fervently for peace to come to all peoples in this war-torn region. And let us pray for Jews and Muslims alike to turn to the one Messiah who can bring such peace to their nations and to their hearts.

Let us pray for them as empathetically as if they were our family because, in God’s eyes, they are. Jesus loves each of them as much as he loves each of us. He died for them just as fully as he died for us. Now it’s our turn to pay forward his compassion with ours.

Mother Teresa was right:

“When you know how much God is in love with you, then you can only live your life radiating that love.”

To this end, let’s close by making Henri Nouwen’s prayer ours today:

Dear God,

As you draw me ever deeper into your heart, I discover that my companions on the journey are women and men loved by you as fully and as intimately as I am. In your compassionate heart, there is a place for all of them. No one is excluded.

Give me a share in your compassion, dear God, so that your unlimited love may become visible in the way I love my brothers and sisters.

Amen.